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Reading a verdict

Attribution, confidence, evidence and freshness: what each component asserts.

A verdict has four components, each answering a different question. Conflating them is the most frequent misreading.

PartAnswersDoes not answer
attribution[].providerWhose infrastructureConfidence in it
attribution[].weightShare of observations attributed to themEvidential strength
confidenceEvidential strengthProvider dominance
evidence.freshnessCurrency of the observationWhether it was ever strong

Weight and confidence are independent

CyberGhost holds 41.6 % of AS9009 across 9,227 observed addresses. The weight is moderate because the network is shared; the confidence is maximal because 9,227 observations establish presence beyond doubt. Combining the two would downgrade a well-evidenced finding solely for sharing a host.

Confidence

ValueMeansThreshold
3Strong50 or more observed addresses
2Moderate5 to 49
1Weak. Corroborate before actingFewer than 5, or feed-only

Freshness

ValueOwn observationsExternal lists
freshObserved within 7 daysWithin 3× the source refresh interval
aging8 to 30 daysWithin 12×
staleOver 30 daysBeyond that